The methods I have been discussing and the results displayed have given no consideration to what a company does to make its earnings. Using Technical Analysis (and fundamental analysis at times) as the primary reason for our buy and sell signals gives no consideration to the reasons “why” a share is performing as it is, it is “as it is” so we buy and sell based on momentum of the price and the emotion of the crowd.
However some people are deeply concerned about company’s effect on the environment and the impact the companies policy may make socially. Our trading rules may trigger a buy in a gambling company and you may be passionately opposed to gambling, or you feel strongly opposed to alcohol and consider it a social problem and do not want to support companies in this sector, in this case you will need to do your own screening of stocks to suit your personal beliefs.
For example for many years I have specialized in the gold market, particularly gold shares. I believe Governments throughout the world create financial instability via central banks by the printing of paper money. With no backing of a physical asset like gold that can not be manipulated, they over stimulate economies creating booms and busts adding to the hardships of many and complicating an already intricate world.
The ownership of gold I see as a positive for global stability and I support the industry selectively.
Mining is a controversial issue and I agree with the concerns of many, recently one of the worlds biggest gold miners, Newcrest Mining of Australia has taken over Lihir gold of Papua New Guinea. Lihir has a horrid environmental record in that country in regard to polluting river systems and for that reason I would not buy it. Hopefully Newcrest will do a better job.
I remember as a child playing and swimming with children in that country where I lived a short while, I don’t like the thought of that no longer being able to happen because we in the western economies support a company with little concern for social liberties.
This is my choice, and we all need to make our decisions and live with them, it is possible to still make money and trade well by being a little selective.
Below is a guideline as to what to look for before deciding to invest in a company, more information can be found on the ASX website or by googling a companies website
The signals below are so you can follow trades that make NEW 52 week highs.
A new 52 week high is when the stock price is at its highest close (or equal to the highest close) counting back 52 weeks.
If a stock continues to make new highs, for example in the 53rd and 54th week, they are now regarded as ROLLING highs, not NEW 52 week highs.To clarify again, the buy signal for THIS system discussed is a NEW 52nd week or 1 year closing high, not a rolling high as is often printed in the papers or posted elsewhere on the internet.
Also, the signals provided are the ones used in the Course System 2 and the Course Pyramid System, WITHOUT A BULL FILTER.
Those of you that have done my courses or attended personal trading lessons will know what Bull filters are. It is at your discretion to employ these filters or not, it is best that you have decided if you are to employ the filters or not, and STICK TO that decision.
Other parameters (along with the 52 week closing high) to be met for the signal to be valid are: The 11 EMA weekly is to be above a 12 EMA weekly (to define the trend has been in place a few months, not a recent price spike which is likely to fail)
The exit used FOR THIS METHOD is the 7/12 EMA crossover. Therefore, some stocks will be re signalling a new high buy signal if they have been recently exited by using the 7/12 exit within the last 12 months. This is important and you need to understand this.
Of course the 7 EMA needs to be above the 12 EMA to make the 52 week high valid, (otherwise we would be selling straight away) nearly always this is the case, but rarely if a stock spikes it is not.
So to repeat, the rules are: USING WEEKLY PARAMETERS!
Share price to make a 52 closing (or equal to) week high (when selecting a buy, favour the cheapest stock)
The 11 ema to be above the 12 ema
The 7 ema to be above the 12ema
if the 7 ema crosses below the 12 ema
The above system contains no position sizing, bull or bear filters or fundamental stock selection, these are discussed and taught to private clients or at my courses.
STOCKS IN THE ASX 200
API BKW CCP DMP DXS SPK
STOCKS IN THE ASX 200-300
STOCKS IN THE 300 TO 500
CCZ DDR JIN MGX
Remember these scans are not using a Bull filter. The signals are for the simple 52 week CLOSING high entry and 7/12 EMA crossover exit system only.
This chart below shows two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume and the Chaiken Money Flow (displayed in green) using a 6 week format.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 17/8/18: (see chart below)
The index breaks up and out of its 5 week consolidation, read last weeks commennts and also the comments I made going back
a few weeks. The market looks strong again, indicated by a large number of 52 week highs (12 in the top 500) this week.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 10/8/18: (see chart below)
The All Ords continues to track sideways. This was the 5th week that the index found resistance around the 6400 area.
The OBV indicator is suggesting higher prices, the CMF appears positive too. The strategy is trade your system and be patient.
Higher prices will come, this is a traditional slow time of year before the market often rallies into Xmas.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 3/8/18: (see chart below)
The market backs off a little this week but its not telling us much. Stick to the system is the best option.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 27/7/18: (see chart below)
The big picture I mentioned last week dominates. Volume picks up and the market rallies. There is no short term sign of
weakness. The old market highs pre GFC are really not that far away (around 470 points or a little over 7% away).
We could be there by Christmas.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 20/7/18: (see chart below)
Price continues to push higher but volume is decreasing, the same pattern as the last few weeks. Its wait and see what
happens over the next few weeks. The big picture looks strong, the monthly chart below shows a healthy trend channel
and large volume coming into the market in May and June.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 13/7/18: (see chart below)
The XAO continues to rise, but there is now a divergence betwen price and volume. Volume is weakening suggesting buyers are
tapped out. Also there is only one new 52 week closing high in the alerts this week, indicating weakness. A pullback or at least consolidation
Peters portfolio managed a small rise this week because some stocks rallied well, but others are falling. Interesting times. I suggested
last week the market was churning, money is being re alloctaed and my portfolio is certainly showing that. One of the good things about
buying 52 week highs is that the strategy normally puts you where the money is going, without having to think about it. It will be
interesting to see what stocks and sectors start to trigger in the coming weeks and months as the churning subsides and decisions are
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 6/7/18: (see chart below)
The XAO goes higher but with less volume. Not all stocks are rising, it seems there is some churning happening. Money being
relocated into other sectors. Peters Portfolio got whacked again this week with the fall in ELD.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 29/6/18: (see chart below)
Prices and volume recede a little this week, the XAO seems to be getting help from the falling Aussie dollar, as the market
has been resilient to falls on overseas indices. One would expect more consolidation, but it is dangerous to expect or
predict. The trend is strong and up. Peters Portfolio suffered a little this week due to falls in HSN, any stock not perfroming
fundamentally well is punished and MTS and HSN are recent victims.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 22/6/18: (see chart below)
Well when I said last week the high in January looks to be taken out soon......I didnt think it would be this week. Goes to show
what I always say, no one can predict. The best we have is probability. This market has been rising, even when it was dipping it
never lost volume support, so probability of more rises was greater than the probability of market falls. Re read my comments below
on the 20/4/18 and the 4/5/18, and learn to read the OBV filter, it will tell you more than any analyst or market commentator. The CMF
looks in over bought territory, but it doesnt mean the price will fall, its just letting us know volume is high, and we knew that didnt we?
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 15/6/18: (see chart below)
The market continues to rise. More volume chimes in. The high in January looks like it could be over taken sometime soon,
Peters Portfolio had a good week rising over 2 percent.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 8/6/18: (see chart below)
The XAO bounced off volume support with prices following, huge volume last week, I dont know why, I suspect a corporate
action. If anyone knows please email me. Looking at the chart above it seems primed for more upward price action. I notice in
the U.S. the Russell and the Nasdaq are now in all time, new high territory, the Dow and the SP500 are catching up. Those that
shorted the markets a few months ago must be hurting. Peters Portfolio managed a small rise this week, but was negatively
impacted by the fall in MTS.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 1/6/18: (see chart below)
The market has pulled back a little in the last 3 weeks since I have been away on holidays. Volume indicators are on support,
the medium term trend line that the eBook system uses is still in tact. The market looks like it needs more consolidation
before the next upthrust, of course that doesnt mean to say individual stocks will languish, some will rally and others wont,
thats trend trading. Peters Portfolio managed a small rise despite the Index falling.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 11/5/18: (see chart below)
We have now had 6 weeks of recovery, volumes are high, the price is double topping, but I would not be brave enough
to call a slow down. In the U.S. the mid cap index of the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq are threatening to break to new highs
while the SP500 and the Dow drag behind. In Australia the Mid Cap 50 index has already made a new high, is it leading the
way for other indexes? See chart below. The distribution from big caps to mid caps continues, not just here in Australia
but it seems overseas as well. Perhaps the Dow is no longer the most logical market barometer with other indexes now
leading the market.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 4/5/18: (see chart below)
Rising price, rising volume, the CMF (13 period) the only non conformer. This is a very strong market, I suppose some
resistance will happen around 6230 (the last highest close) as the technical traders sell, but I wouldnt like to be shorting
this beast at the moment. Peters Portfolio bounced back up this week by 3% while the eBook system put in a stellar 4%
rise, some more, some less, depending on each traders holdings.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 27/4/18: (see chart below)
I suggest you read the last 2 weeks comments, nothing has changed except the eBook system is back in buy mode.
The bull is back, so we go with the flow and follow our systems.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 20/4/18: (see chart below)
In the chart below I have changed the CMF indicator to a 13 period, to reflect the markets quarterly calendar oscillations.
I like the CMF indicator but it does seem difficult to find the best time period. Perhaps thats why the OBV is possibly more
relaible, as it does not depend on time. Anyway, the market is improving and recovering from the recent sell off, a theme
I have repeatedly commented on the past few weeks and months. The Bull seems in tact, the OBV has made a new high
suggesting the price will follow. Next week the eBook system Bull filter will probably allow buying of new signals, other systems
with shorter term filters or that use filters on other indexes apart from the AllOrds, are already buying.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 13/4/18: (see chart below)
Huge volume this week, one of the biggest volume weeks in the last year, and the market price rises. One weeks price action
does not make a trend, or a recovery rally or anything really, but it is a sign the buyers dominated last week, despite much
negative rhetoric by some market commentators. It will be an interesting week this one to see if the momentum can be maintained.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 6/4/18: (see chart below)
Very little change this week. Another low volume week because of the Easter break.
The price is below the medium term moving average, indicating a wait and see approach. The CMF on the chart below has been changed
back to its usual 24 week period. Re read last weeks comments.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 29/3/18: (see chart below)
Its obvious the trend line starting in Oct 17 has broken. My bull filter systems are saying wait and do not buy, but many stocks
are holding up well. I only have one sell in my portfolio this week. Volumes do not support a melt down. I have changed the
parameters of the Chaiken Money Flow indicator to a 6 period (6 weeks) you can see it is sitting on support. The OBV has
not fallen like the price has, until the volumes support the price action I think this is a pull back not a major correction.
Price is still the ultimate indicator, so its wait and see. Trade your system.
Looking at the monthly chart below....now that we have completed the first quarter of trading for the year......you can see
volume (OBV) and price are in tact and trending well.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 23/3/18: (see chart below)
Lets look at the XAO in a simple line chart, the price trend line has broken, most bull filters are saying do not buy, hold positions,
only sell trades that are giving a sell signal. Looking at the volume indictors above, they do not support the sell bias but show
support. Last weeks volume was the lowest in 8 weeks, in my opinion sellers are not committed, our system says wait,
so we do. Waiting is a valid strategy, it is not doing nothing.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 16/3/18: (see chart below)
The market goes sideways this week. More consolidation it seems.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 9/3/18: (see chart below)
I might as well just repeat what I have been saying for the last few weeks. This market is strong, a lot stronger than what
some others think. Charts dont lie, our minds get in the way and create negative thoughts from fear. The above chart indicates
more upward prices next week.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 2/3/18: (see chart below)
Despite last weeks pull back the chart of the XAO looks strong. Volume indicators remain in tact showing upward momentum.
There is a lot of fear in the market at the moment. We probably need a few weeks of sideways movement so the minds of
traders can settle and regather, before we see the uptrend start again. This major trend is in place, and as hard as it may be to keep
riding it, it is still the best option rather then selling out completely, as some people are doing or suggesting.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 23/2/18: (see chart below)
The chart last week suggested higher prices, and thats what we got. Volume indicators on this chart look very strong, suggesting
the recovery rally after the recent sell off, has more to go. Also in the ASX 200 there were 7 new 52 week highs for the simple
weekly trend trading system I talk about on this website, a strong indicator that buyers are back!
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 16/2/18: (see chart below)
The market recovered a little this week, respecting the price trend line and the volume support lines. This is still a healthy looking
price chart, the medium term trend still in place. Strong volume indicators suggest higher prices to come. The market
often rallies into May, so we could still have 3 months of strong upward price action before the next slow down or pull back.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 9/2/18: (see chart below)
Well what a week. As you can see from the chart above, price is on trendline support and volume indicators are holding up well.
I will borrow a famous quote from an ex prime minister, it was the correction we had to have. The US market was over heated
and it wasnt going to take much for it to sell off. I see this sell off as a typical pull back in a stage 3 bull market. Its a great buying
opportunity for short term traders, the next few weeks will be interesting.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 2/2/18: (see chart below)
The market rallies on good volume, I still feel we are consolidating, maybe even pulling back a little, before the next rally up.
But the systems are still buying and holding trending trades, its been a good time to be a trend trader the last 8 months.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 25/1/18: (see chart below)
Interesting chart. One volume indicator is positive one is not so. It seems the consolidation I suggested last week may be occurring.
The index recovers this week, low volumes are because of the 4 day trading week, due to the Australia day holiday.