The signals below are so you can follow trades that make NEW 52 week highs.
A new 52 week high is when the stock price is at its highest close (or equal to the highest close) counting back 52 weeks.
If a stock continues to make new highs, for example in the 53rd and 54th week, they are now regarded as ROLLING highs, not NEW 52 week highs.To clarify again, the buy signal for THIS system discussed is a NEW 52nd week or 1 year closing high, not a rolling high as is often printed in the papers or posted elsewhere on the internet.
Also, the signals provided are the ones used in the Course System 2 and the Course Pyramid System, WITHOUT A BULL FILTER.
Those of you that have done my courses or attended personal trading lessons will know what Bull filters are. It is at your discretion to employ these filters or not, it is best that you have decided if you are to employ the filters or not, and STICK TO that decision.
Other parameters (along with the 52 week closing high) to be met for the signal to be valid are: The 11 EMA weekly is to be above a 12 EMA weekly (to define the trend has been in place a few months, not a recent price spike which is likely to fail)
The exit used FOR THIS METHOD is the 7/12 EMA crossover. Therefore, some stocks will be re signalling a new high buy signal if they have been recently exited by using the 7/12 exit within the last 12 months. This is important and you need to understand this.
Of course the 7 EMA needs to be above the 12 EMA to make the 52 week high valid, (otherwise we would be selling straight away) nearly always this is the case, but rarely if a stock spikes it is not.
So to repeat, the rules are: USING WEEKLY PARAMETERS!
Share price to make a 52 closing (or equal to) week high (when selecting a buy, favour the cheapest stock)
The 11 ema to be above the 12 ema
The 7 ema to be above the 12ema
if the 7 ema crosses below the 12 ema
The above system contains no position sizing, bull or bear filters or fundamental stock selection, these are discussed and taught to private clients or at my courses.
These are the 52 week closing highs for the week ending 8/12/17
STOCKS IN THE ASX 200
ANN IOF PMV
STOCKS IN THE ASX 200-300
STOCKS IN THE ASX 300-500
Remember these scans are not using a Bull filter. The signals are for the simple 52 week CLOSING high entry and 7/12 EMA crossover exit system only.
This chart below shows two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume and the Chaiken Money Flow (displayed in green) using a 24 week format.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 8/12/17: (see chart below)
Hardly a change from last week, except volumes look stronger.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 1/12/17: (see chart below)
The rally continues but slows. However the OBV indicator is outperforming the price suggesting more upward price action
is to come. Notice too the high volume bar this week, as buyers and sellers compete in their feelings about what will happen
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 24/11/17: (see chart below)
Observing the weekly bar chart below the rally continues, its follow the trend at the moment until our systems tell us otherwise.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 17/11/17: (see chart below)
The rally slows but strength remains. A few less 52 week highs this week, indicating the buyers are sated, as is indicated
by the small pullback in the index. I wrote a news letter this week giving more detail, if you did not receive it re subsribe
or go to the newsletter archives to read my recent comments.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 10/11/17: (see chart below)
The Aussie market continues to play catch up to the US markets. The breakout from consolidation becoming more obvious
every week. Volume indicators continue to confirm the rally. You may like to revisit a news letter I wrote in April, before my
study break, nothing has changed, if anything the analysis I made back then has ramped up. Click on the link below.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 03/11/17: (see chart below)
Keeping things simple with a line chart, its clear to see the strength of the XAO. Its a 2.5 year breakout to the upside,
volume supports the move up. As I said last week, sometimes markets wait for no one, as has been the case this week with
the index continuing to rise. Another 12 new 52 week highs this week in the top 500. If the US market does not fall over
a big rally into Xmas is possible, as mentioned in last weeks comments. Also look at the monthly chart I have posted, there is a
beautiful Zen saying "if it is not necessary to do anything, it is necesssary to do nothing", so look at the chart,
I dont need to say anything.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 27/10/17: (see chart below)
The market pauses this week but volumes remain upward. Now one would "expect" a pause at these levels but this market
is strong and it may not wait for anyone. Another 10 new 52 week highs in the ASX 200 this week, indicating buyers are
far outweighing sellers. We have just 2 more days of trading before the end of the month, it will be interesting to see how
the monthly chart looks then, institutions drive the market, so will they buy more or back off before the end of the month?
We may get 2 volatile days, other reasons will be given, but it will mostly be caused by the big money adjusting portfolios
as they postion for the probability of a strong rally into Christmas. Last calendar year the market rose 14%, if it does it
again this year it will rise to around 6500 points, leaving a 500+ point rally till end of year, who knows.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 20/10/17: (see chart below)
Price, its the ultimate boss in trading, you can speculate and analyse all you want, using volumes, trend lines, indicators, cycles
etc., but at the end of all the gnashing of teeth, hope and worry, price tells all. This week I have posted a simple line chart to remove
the noise our minds create when looking at more detailed charts. Price has broken up past old resistance, 17 new 52 week highs
this week, this market is behaving like the release of a coiled spring, held down for months of consolidation. Once 6000 points
consolidates the next target is 6800, the old highs of the pre GFC......see the 2nd chart this week which is a monthly with adjusted volume
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 13/10/17: (see chart below)
Take off! the market comes to its senses with small and mid caps leading the way, as can be seen above with most new highs in the 300 to 500 sector. A few clients have emailed and rung, saying their portfolios have rallied well the last month, patience for sticking out the grind of the long sideways period being rewarded, the only consistent clue to this rally coming was that the OBV never really dropped off, or flashed big selling volume, as I mentioned 3 weeks ago.
I am back in the market after a very enjoyable break, when I finish loading I will post the portfolio.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 6/10/17: (see chart below)
Is the consoidation period in the XAO coming to an end?
The price closes above the medium term EMA. The most impressive volume indicator of the three below is the CMF as it looks to break its 24 week downtrend line. The OBV and the volume bar chart still look lacklustre.
However my momentum systems are saying buy, with many new signals this week. Small and medium cap stocks again begin to move up, leaving their gorilla counterparts (the top 20) behind, as can be seen in the the 2nd chart posted this week of the XSO (Small Ords). The probability this week is a pause inthe rally. Dont expect it, have no expectations, trade your system.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 29/9/17: (see chart below)
The market continues to go sideways to down, but volumes are low suggesting sellers are not committed. OBV shows upward momentum, suggesting too that there is underlying strength. October is often an upward month.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 22/9/17: (see chart below)
The market continues its bearish look, its still a sideways market, not a sell off, the bull filter keeps us out of the market. The old saying "if the market doesnt shake you out it will wear you out" is certainly apt at the moment.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 15/9/17: (see chart below)
This sideways pattern in the XAO has now continued for 18 weeks, I have been trading for over 20 years and I dont recall a pattern like this, goes to show (again) how markets are unpredictable. The weekly close on the last bar on this chart looks bearish, but one bar does not make a trend or pattern. Volumes indicators are alittle conflicting, with OBV up but CMF down, indicating sellers dominate. Its a weak time of year, September is often bearish, the bull filter is saying wait, which means dont buy but hold positions until stopped. Simple techinically, difficult emotionally. Stay strong.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 8/9/17: (see chart below)
Regular readers will notice I missed last week, apologies for that. This market continues to experience a long sideways move. Volumes as you can see from the chart are on support. September can be a weak month and with whats been happening OS the US market could sell off and we will probably follow. However in our market the battle of the heavyweights continues with resources up and banks down, until we get those 2 sectors going in the same direction
the sideways look of the XAO will continue.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 25/8/17: (see chart below)
There are 2 charts below, a weekly bar chart and a monthly line chart, the monthly is displayed in its line format to remove the "noise" we often read into trends. Volume indicators on the monthly chart have been adjusted to suit the longer time frame. The trend is a grinding slow one, but the main thing to notice is, its up. Looking at that monthly chart it seems set to continue, despite the chop the weekly chart has provided the last few months. The OBV on the monthly chart is particularly impressive, will the price catch up to the indicator soon?
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 18/8/17: (see chart below)
OK, now its getting interesting. Despite the doom and gloomers, the overseas political rhetoric (just dont listen to it because no one knows what is truth and what isn't) and our local political garbage, the market hasn't crashed.
The big 4 banks, Telstra and other "Mum and Dad" stocks are struggling, but many small and mid cap stocks are not. Look at the number of 52 week highs, particularly outside the top 200. The make up of the index is changing, money is flowing from large caps to medium, which in time will become large caps. The XAO index is still dominated by the big 4, BHP, Telstra and the performance of those stocks reflects on the index. To prove my point, look at the Mid Caps chart below this chart of the XAO, and how much stronger it has been of late. I can't wait for the day our market has a more balanced index, but until then we need to keep looking behind the scenes to get the real story, which isn't as bad as we are often led to believe. Be that from our own fear, or those of others.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 11/8/17: (see chart below)
This is now the 13th week, except one, that the XAO has closed below the medium term trend line in the chart below. This time of year can be seasonally weak, the market looks to sell and it got a reason with Trumps speech about Nth Korea. This market is not rising, but it has not broken down either.
Trending stocks with good fundamentals still exist, as a trend trader they are the ones to be in, but in the mean timemarket filters keep the money safe while we wait out this sideways period.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 4/8/17: (see chart below)
The chaiken money flow chart has broken below the trendline, and the ON Balance Volume indicator rises. Investor trepidation continues and volumes are up and down and prices sideways, the XAO price closes below the medium term trend line. Some stocks have clear up trends, trading is a matter of risk control (trade sizing) and taking buy and sell signals until the market trends strongly again, which could happen at any time.