I will be presenting at the Newcastle ATAA (Australian Technical Analysts Association) on the 8th October.
The presentation will be about using alternative sell techniques to preserve profits, and a look at some daily trading systems, their rules, results and expectations. Also some discussion about mindfulness and trading psychology, how to use those techniques to improve results and help cope with pullbacks in the market.
For venue details click here, and go to events/monthly meetings
The Australian major market index the XAO, continues to more or less track sideways over the medium term. With falls in the banking index and most commodity stocks still not really recovering to any significant level, the index looks listless. However as I often mention in my weekly comments on the website, appearances can be deceiving as many stocks not financials or miners, have been performing quite well. They just escape mainstream focus.
For example looking at the chart below which represents the Australian Mid Cap stocks, you can clearly see the strong uptrend, showing that despite the gloom and doom about global deflation and lack of growth, other stocks apart from ones with large capitalisation, are doing quite nicely.
Trends often prevail. There appears to be a global trend towards mid-size stocks as technological disruption, low interest rates and low fuel costs assist their profit generation. Economic analysis of the economy is not my skillset, but it is hard to argue with the above chart, change is happening and money is flowing into that sector and away from traditional Mum and Dad stocks.
The All Ords below, dominated by the banks and the big miners, is clearly not trending up as well as the mid cap index, in fact it has been down and up for around 20 months.
The portfolio is having a pull back. It's “par for the course”. There are 18 holes to play in a golf game before you count the score, and trading is about more than one week or monthly result. I am a weekly trend trader and I remind myself that it's best to review results over longer term periods of months and quarters than it is to “sweat the small stuff” and worry about a few bad weeks returns. I know that the maximum historical pullback of my trading method is around 12%. So far the portfolio has pulled back 6% from its equity high, so this fall is well within “normal”.
What’s normal? A clever friend of mine once said “normal is the mid-point between your two extremes.” One of the undeniable benefits of having a method and knowing your likely portfolio pull back, helps assist the trader’s mindset. Normal, in this case would be what method you have chosen and KNOWING the probabilities of your method.
As always Peters Portfolio is displayed for free on my website, with all the trades and results listed. Hopefully assisting you in your learning process along with cementing my accountability as a system developer and coach. Yes, there IS method in my madness :) Click here for details.