Recently I attended a very good presentation by my new friend Rik Arendsen from Aspirations Wealth Group based in Sydney. The topic was a discussion of bull and bear markets. Below is a summary of typical investor sentiment when markets are at a top.
Primary Sentiment at Extreme Tops
1/This time it's different. New theories for higher valuations
2/FOMO – Fear of Missing Out becomes too painful
3/Crowd excitement reaches fever level - the safety of group think
4/All stocks rise – even the crappy ones
5/Self confidence rises, bad news ignored
6/Greed reaches new highs
7/Charting software sales increase, Sales of Trading courses increase
8/Savings levels fall
When I look at the list above, I do not see that sort of behaviour (yet) so if we were to use the above as a "probability judge" it would seem the top is not yet here.
A reminder I will be presenting at the Newcastle ATAA on Saturday 14th December.
"Zen is not some kind of excitement, but a concentration of our daily routine"
"Trading is not some kind of excitement, but a concentration of our daily (weekly or monthly) routine"