Market Comments 11/7/25
When I ran the scan for the Mindful System on the ASX 500 today - there were 2 buy alerts and 15 sell alerts, so that gives you an idea of the current mood! Price action on the ASX 500 was ok this week, but you can see the MFI has double topped and the OBV has broken its strong uptrend to the downside. Also, we can see price double topped a few weeks ago.
Even though the index (ASX 500) is fairly steady, it doesn't show whats happening within the different sectors. Some sectors are falling but the index is being supported by the rotation into the Materials index, Utilities and Energy. I notice too the $A is holding up well, partly because of the surprise hold from the RBA but no doubt also because of the strong commodities market.
On Friday in the US the commodities rally continued with BHP and RIO (listed in the UK and US) both had strong performances. So one would expect our index to hold up well, perhaps rally. Gold and silver also rallied.
It remains to be seen if other sectors like Tech, Finance, Consumer and Industrials can hold up.
Have a great week and..........
If you want any more info just email me by going here.
https://www.easysharetradingsystems.com.au/contact-peter
If you didnt see last weeks post srcoll down for some interesting charts.
Here are the Alerts for this week below,
have a good week,
Peter
This weeks 52 week high alerts for 11/7/25
ASX 300: AEL BSL
ASX: 300 - 500: None this week
The exit used FOR THIS METHOD is the 5/12 EMA crossover. Therefore, some stocks will be re signalling a new high buy signal if they have been recently exited by using the 5/12 exit within the last 12 months. This is important and you need to understand this.
Of course the 5 EMA needs to be above the 12 EMA to make the 52 week high valid, (otherwise we would be selling straight away) nearly always this is the case, but rarely if a stock spikes it is not.
So to repeat, the rules are: USING WEEKLY PARAMETERS!
Entry:
Share price to make a 52 closing (or equal to) week high (when selecting a buy, favour the cheapest stock)
The 5 ema to be above the 12ema
Exit:
if the 5 ema crosses below the 12 ema
The above system contains no position sizing, bull or bear filters or fundamental stock selection, these are discussed and taught to private clients or at my courses.
Market Comments: 4th July 2025
Apologies for skipping last week, I had a few website problems. on the weekly chart the market really looks like it wants to keep going up. Even though there is a slight divergence on the MFI, the OBV continues to point up. The other consideration for the bull argument is that the 52 WH system keeps pushing out signals, the 300 to 500 in particular is looking strong.
However, some negative news make take the steam out of this rally, so we will have to wait and see if that comes. Next week the RBA meet to decide on interest rates, one would think that will make an impact - one way or another.
The chart below is a monthly of the SPX in the US. When I look at that I see what the bears are concerned about. Indicators are either diverging or at the top of their range. Nearly every time the CMF (Chaiken Money Flow) gets up to that high point, the market corrects. Its been an amazing rally the last 2 years and its makes one wonder how long it can last. Something I find concerning is all the bullish calls lately, "melt up" etc., always a red flag IMO.
All 
As you know I do teach a longer term approach - I call it medium term, attempting to balance between trading and investing. I posted some result charts for the last 2 years here on this link https://www.easysharetradingsystems.com.au/easy-share-trading-systems/peters-portfolio
As well as charts on that link above, here are some more. The chart below is the Mindful system the last 12 months, not the best year up almost 10%, but bear in mind the year before was a cracker up nearly 85% (see the link above)
Keep scrolling down.
The chart below shows the last 12 months trading a list of fundamental shares (information withheld for private clients) up 35% for the year. Same system, same sizing, same entry, same exit, just a different stock list.
Its the same old story, have a system that has a positive expectancy (like the Mindful system or similar) learn how pick good stocks, work on your psychology and how to mange the trades. Its simple but at times not easy.
If you want any more info just email me by going here
https://www.easysharetradingsystems.com.au/contact-peter
Here are the Alerts for this week below,
have a good week,
Peter
This weeks 52 week high alerts for 4/7/25
ASX 300: PME RUL SCG
ASX: 300 - 500: 3DA CBO GDF LGI MAD URF
Market Comments: 20th June 2025
The chart above is a live chart as of 3.30 pm Monday 23rd June - when I am writing these comments. However as I said last week, it did appear the market looked ripe for a pullback (see last weeks comments below) and with the latest news coming from the Middle East, the trend appears to be coming down - at least in the short term until the charts give us more information.
Looking at the chart above you can see the MFI was overbought and could fall to the 35 area before reaching oversold areas. The OBV is still trending up well but can fall more before it reaches its uptrend support line. The price double topped, and has a possible magnet of around 8000 where there is lots of horizontal support - where I have drawn the blue dotted line. That blue line also meets the green uptrend line - which I have drawn through the weekly closes, not just the weekly bar lows. If I drew the line through the weekly bar low points it reduces support to around 7600, with all that price and volume support at 8000, let's revisit that scenario if it happens.
Trading is about probability and when we consider the short term overbought status of the market, the time of year and the troubles in the Middle East, the probability remains high the XAO index will keep pulling back. But! anything can happen, some may remember what happened in 2003 when the US invaded Iraq, the markets took off like a rocket. However, it had tread water for 3 years and once the uncertainty was over the market rallied. This market is coming off a double top and a V shaped rally so I think its fair to say its a little different scenario.
Markets dislike uncertainty and there is plenty around at the moment. Despite that, the 52 WH system still produced 7 signals this week and they are listed below.
Until next week
Peter
Market Comments: 13th June 2025
This week I have two charts to discuss, the ASX 500 (All Ords) and the Nasdaq. I have mentioned many times how the ASX 500 is a different index as it includes many banking and commodity stocks, the Nasdaq as we know, is mainly Tech stocks. So the two indexes will look and perform differently as the economic cycles change.
However the Nasdaq still effects many other global indexes and the ASX 500 is not immune to the fortunes of the large US indexes. When we compare the two indexes you can see the ASX volumes look more supportive, this makes sense from a fundamental perspective as we know there is currently a big interest in commodity stocks, from both growth (rare earths) and saftey (gold, oil) reasons.
However, the ASX 500 volume indicators are very extended to the upside and the price is double topping.
The Nasdaq is also double topping and the volume indicators are bearish. Does this mean a fall or even a crash? No. It means traders and investors are mindful that this rally has been hard and fast, uncertainty is still there (well, it always is), a pullback and some consolidation is likely more probable - than a continuation of the rally.
Its going to be interesting to see a few things
1/ if the market now pulls back
2/ how far it pulls back
3/ if it keeps going without a pullback
Trading is about probability and I think it will pull back, because we now have an overbought situation where as 10 weeks ago, we had oversold one (being mindful I could be wrong). I am talking about the indexes pulling back when I say that, individual stocks and sectors may well continue to power on.
The thing to watch will be the depth of the pullback, if its shallow and the market turns back up quickly, we may well get the melt up some are predicting. If the pullback is deeper and longer, the market will do its usual slowdown and consolidation for this time of year - and build for a rally around October to December.
Of course black swans can occur, the latest being the threat of an Israel/Iran conflict. That concern helped the gold sector this week, if you scroll down to last weeks comments, I covered that sector there.
Until next week,
Peter
Ths weeks 52 week high alerts for 13/6/25
ASX 300: KAR ORG RIC WGX
ASX: 300 - 500: CGS
Market Comments: 6th June 2025
What happened to Sell in May? What will it take for this recovery to slow down? Looking at the chart above and the positive divergence between price and volume - it appears the bulls are well in control. The MFI is sitting at a reading of 74, the over bought level is around 84, so one would "think" its getting a little over extended. Technically, a double top in price is very close and if there is to be a pause, some profit taking and some "waiting" for prices to fall so traders can reload, it may happen soon.
This is where the psychology of traders rules fundamentals. If the hype (maybe its not) around AI continues and things settle a bit in the US, we could get FOMO send the market on a new leg up. Also, looking at this data of stock seasonality, (click on link)
https://market-bulls.com/seasonal-tendency-market-charts/
you can see that July can be a very strong month.
The Gold market: I notice the large and mid cap sector gold stocks are looking a little tired. (There are a few exceptions) Something that happens towards the final stages of a gold bull run is that junior stocks start to run hard. Look at this chart of the Vaneck Gold stock juniors in the US. It does not show it on the chart - but that's a 15 period RSI, representing 3 weeks of price action. As you can see its been a good run up in this sector, and why not? With gold still looking strong the stocks have (finally) responded. The other thing supporting the theory that the precious metals may be in the final stages (which can be the most dynamic) is the silver price. The silver price has recently made a new high and silver does not normally rally until gold is in its final stages.
However! as I like to say - I wouldn't short it! A small divergence like the one above does not mean this cant go higher - much higher. The weekly chart below shows that.
until next week, Peter
Ths weeks 52 week high alerts for 6/6/25
ASX 300: ALX BKW SGH XRO
ASX: 300 - 500: EOS KSL QAL
Market Comments: 23rd May 2025
This week I have gone back to a chart with comments. I have missed the last few weeks and I will be missing again next weekend as I am away on a Zen retreat.
I remember saying I wanted to see a decisive break up on the volume indicators before I was convinced this rally had real merit. The chart above shows now we have that. The OBV has made an all time high and the MFI 13 has broken its downtrend. Also the 52 week high Mindful trading system continues to produce buy signals which is always a positive sign. Lets look at another chart from the US, the SP500.
This index does not look as strong to me as the ASX does. I was a little surprised this week to watch a video produced by Marcus Padley saying that the XAO was not the place to invest but he preferred the US. I do agree with him that for the ASX to outperform the US we need a resources rally. So I suppose that's the bet isnt it? Will the resources market continue to rise?
Anyway, getting back to the chart - even though the MFI looks positive the OBV looks line ball to bearish, and no where near as strong as the ASX. Also last weeks bar looks to be a reversal - but - low volume so perhaps not a lot of conviction yet from the bears.
We are now at a critical point IMO. The price and indicators are suggesting a pause in what has been a quick recovery from the Trump tariff sell off. We are in May (almost June) and seasonally its a bearish time for the market. The important thing to watch is that OBV on the SPX, if that breaks to the downside IMO it will be a bearish sign - for the US market anyway. The ASX could continue to peform if our banks and resource stocks hold up well.
So, I will be back in two weeks, in the mean time good luck and trade well.
Peter
Ths weeks 52 week high alerts for 23/5/25
ASX 300: ADT CDA CGF CLW PRN SRG VNT
ASX: 300 - 500: CDP MAU VNT
Market Comments: 2nd May 2025
Below is a link to a video with market comments, then below that are the the 52 week high alerts. I have also posted an equity curve result of the Mindful Trading system (scroll down a little). This week is very strong with 13 alerts in the ASX 300 and 9 in the ASX 300 to 500.
*Please scroll down for one year results of the system.
So despite the market pullback and volatility it's still giving buy signals.
I hope you enjoy the videos and please let me know what you think so I can make improvements.
If you want to know more about this system and others go here:
https://www.easysharetradingsystems.com.au/products-and-services/e-books
ps: if you decide to buy the eBook please email me and ask for the appendix
Also more charts and info here:
https://www.easysharetradingsystems.com.au/easy-share-trading-systems/peters-portfolio
This weeks video
2nd May 2025
25th April
Ths weeks 52 week high alerts for 2/5/25
ASX 300 : ALQ BGA CAT CBA DVP JBH MGR NCK SGP TCL TLC TPG WES
ASX: 300 - 500: AGI CWP D20 DXB FCL DBI GNP OBL PPM
ALERTS FOR THIS WEEK POSTED BELOW
52 week closing highs as of the Fridays close 25/4/2025
ASX 300 : AFG VCX
ASX: 300 - 500: COG SVR
52 week closing highs as of the Fridays close 18/4/25
ASX 300 : BOQ CQR LYC NEM RMS SLC VAU
ASX: 300 - 500: ARU DXC SX2
Below is the equity curve of the Mindful Trading system over the last 1 years.
System return over the year is 32% - not including dividends
If you want to know more about this system go here:
https://www.easysharetradingsystems.com.au/products-and-services/e-books
ps: if you decide to buy the eBook please email me and ask for the appendix
Also more charts and info here:
https://www.easysharetradingsystems.com.au/easy-share-trading-systems/peters-portfolio
Hi to regular readers. I am taking a break for 3/4 weeks. On the 1st March my partner (of 7 years) and I have decided to tie the knot. In the lead up to the big day we have lots of prep and then a break afterward. I should be back here around the 2nd week in March.
Until then stay safe and trade well,
Regards,
Peter and Cynthia.
ps: you know about me but if you're interested here is a link to Cynthia's website https://thrivingself.com.au/about/
Market Comments: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period for 7/2/25
This week I have something to discuss as the charts are showing a change of mindset from traders. Look at the right side of the chart. The price is trending up, shown clearly by the green line I have drawn. However the OBV has "double topped" and the MFI is now showing a clear negative divergence - you can see the red line I have drawn showing a down trend. Time to panic?
No.
However, looking at the chart it appears price has got ahead of itself. Certainly ahead of volume. It was still a very positive week with the index closing up near its highs but it now appears it wants to take a breather. This coming week we may not see the continual uptrend we have the last 6 to 7 weeks.
Alerts are below, showing some interesting developments.
Until next week
Peter
52 week closing highs as of the Fridays close 7/2/25
ASX 300 : AFG MAF NCK PDI (all of these in the 100 - 300. (I suggest you read last weeks comments about rotation from large cap stocks to the smaller ones)
and more interest in this sector too........
ASX: 300 - 500: ABA DUR PNR SSR
Market Comments: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period for 31/1/25
My comments are getting to sound a little like the movie Groundhog Day - the movie where every day is a repeat of the previous except I am discussing a weekly occurrence. Some overhead resistance is looming on the 13 period MFI but until that is reached its onward and upward so the chart suggests.
Something I have mentioned many times here before is the rotation of money out of the Nasdaq 100 and into the Russell 2000. I am not going to show the charts as they are easy enough to google but I will say this.
The Nasdaq looks a little toppy and overbought but the Russell appears to be trending upward more steadily. This is a big deal in my opinion. The fear (always plenty of that) has been that the overbought Nasdaq will crash the markets. But, or maybe I could say "however " - if money flows out of the Nasdaq 100 and into the more broad based Russell of 2000 stocks, this can only be a good thing for the US and ultimately the global economy?
Food for thought.
Another comment is this: The Russell 2000 has a strong correlation with the ASX 500 - makes sense when you think that Australia does not have a big Tech sector as the US does - largely represented by the Nasdaq 100. As the Russell goes so often does the ASX 500.
The strong performance this week in the US by the Russell shows up in the ASX 500 alerts this week with 10 alerts for the 52 week high system - all in the ASX 300 sector and 7 from the Small Ords sector (100 to 300 on the ASX and the index similar to the US Russell) .
Now that should tell you something.
Have a great week
Peter
ALERTS FOR THIS WEEK POSTED BELOW
52 week closing highs as of the Fridays close 31/1/25
ASX 300 : ACL EBO EMR HVN MPL NAB RIC RMS URW WES (7 of these in the 100 - 300)
ASX: 300 - 500: None
Market Comments: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period for 24/1/25
Before reading this weeks comments I suggest you read last weeks, for not a lot has changed. The market continues to be strong. Price and volume action are trending up well from oversold areas on the chart. The next challenge for the price will be a double top but volumes have a while to go before getting back into over bought territory and if I was going to predict (as you know I don't) the probability is price will exceed the previous high.
Lets see!
I hope you are all having a nice long weekend break and that the good vibes continue in the market.
ps: my suggestion for the Australia Day controversy is to keep the date but change the name.
Recognition Day is my suggestion which hopefully covers every ones feelings.
All the best
Peter
ALERTS FOR THIS WEEK POSTED BELOW
52 week closing highs as of the Fridays close 24/1/25
ASX 300 : COL MQB OPT
ASX: 300 - 500: SFC
See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period for 17/1/25
IMO the index above looks strong. Price support lines are holding well. The OBV support line is holding well. The weeks price has closed to the upper range of its bar. The volume bar levels are improving. The MFI is oversold and holding its trend line. So, it appears the mindset of traders and investors is becoming less fearful. Seemingly driven by some positive economic data coming from the US (high employment) and talk (hope) of an interest rate cut here in Australia because inflation is falling - many householders would disagree with that one!
The investing world now waits for President Trumps 2nd inauguration to decide if or where to invest. I find it amusing many are concerned about what he will say, or not say during his acceptance speech. Whatever he says (maybe he will say little?) no doubt interpretations will be made.
However, if we are to remove the noise from the media and their interpretations, and just look at the chart, it looks bullish. We may have low volumes again this week because the US market only has a 4 day trading week due to the Martin Luther King Jr public holiday (an unfortunate clash with President Trumps inauguration day).
Have a good week,
Peter
ALERTS FOR THIS WEEK POSTED BELOW
52 week closing highs as of the Fridays close 17/1/25
Below are the alerts from a scan of the ASX 300 and the 300 to 500
300: INA
300 : BFL
See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period for 10/1/25
Its hanging in there this index. We STILL have low volumes this week. The U.S. markets had a 4 day trading week because of Jimmy Carters funeral, so we did have one day on the ASX "without a lead" from the U.S. We really do play follow the leader. The ASX had six new 52 week closing highs which did surprise me a little as trading this week seemed insipid. Lets look at the U.S.
The SP500 looks to be weakening. Although the price is still trending up quite well, volumes have broken down. There is a bearish divergence between price and OBV. Also the MFI 13 period (one calendar quarter) has broken below its trend line. They are not big divergences or big breakdowns - but small breakdowns can quickly develop into big ones. Of course we know the SPX in the US is dominated by big tech, but the ASX appears to be holding up better with the resources, energy and materials sector which all had a strong week.
It appears inflation is the big fear at the moment - resulting in LESS cuts from the Fed than the market wants or expects. I read today the following script below, taken from this link here
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
US Equities closed sharply lower on Friday, following a stronger-than-expected jobs report that dampened expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both dropped 1.5%, while the Dow Jones plunged almost 700 points. The December jobs report showed a robust labor market, with 256,000 new jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, surpassing forecasts. This raised concerns that the Fed could keep rates elevated for a longer period.
So it's a strange world, but that's markets. Despite a very strong employment report (the fear was it would be otherwise) the markets focus is really on rates. Until we get more certainty on this matter the markets may continue to flounder. As mentioned last week the big event is probably Trumps inauguration. What will he say to trigger the markets up or down?!
Have a great week
Peter
ALERTS FOR THIS WEEK POSTED BELOW
52 week closing highs as of the Fridays close 10/1/25
Below are the alerts from a scan of the ASX 300 and the 300 to 500
300: MND LTM SHV TPW
300 - ARX CYC
See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period for 3/1/25
I am still in holiday mode :) and volumes are very low, so I wont say a lot this week about Indexes until we get more data to show which way this market will go, up, down or sideways.
I am writing this on Monday 6th Jan after the Mondays close, so that explains the odd last bar with extra low volume, as its only one days trading. The 2 shortened trading weeks over Christmas and New Year were actually quite bullish - but again the low volumes may not account for much of an indication. The OBV indicator looks supportive however the 13 period is trending down.
At the end of this week with a full weeks trading we will have more of an idea of how this index and others are looking. Some things I have noticed over the holiday season are the following:
Oil has had a bounce off its recent lows.
Bitcoin is back up towards US 100K - 99,250 as I write.
The smaller cryptos have also bounced from their recent sell off.
Gold is trading sideways and there are still quite a lot of gold stocks running well in the 52WH system.
The Russell in the US looks to be consolidating - will it attract more buying if the rotation from big caps to mid caps picks up steam?
The markets will probably worry their way towards Trumps inauguration on the 20th Jan. I expect that narrative to gather momentum over the next two weeks so some increased volatility is more probable IMO.
In the last month the CRB index (commodities) has risen 4% and made a 52 week high.
Alerts below, have a great week.
52 week closing highs as of the Fridays close 3/1/25
Below are the alerts from a scan of the ASX 300 and the 300 to 500
300: None
300 - 500: EBR
Have a good trading/investing week.
Peter
See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period for 27/12/24
A few things to remember when looking at this index of the ASX 500. Its dominated by the top 50 - even more by the top 20. Also we have had only a 3 day trading week, one of those days a shortened trading day of Christmas eve. Note the low volume.
In saying that there were warning signs of it being overbought - the OBV and the MFI were diverging down as can be seen with the red lines I have drawn on the chart. This is still a healthy looking and trending chart, there are no serious volume to price divergences and price has bounced off support. But. Its too early to tell if this is a correction or something more serious - particularly with such low volume and not a full weeks trading. The coming week will be similar with another shortened 3 day trading week. Below is a chart of the Small Ords which is the 100 to 300.
What stands out to me on this chart is the positive divergence from the OBV during the recent pull back. Longer term trend and volume support lines are holding. But again, we need more information to make a call. Of course, this index, along with any others in the ASX that are showing support, are at the mercy of US markets. Below is a 2 year chart in weekly format of the SP500 in the US.
The negative divergence on the 13 period MFI was and is obvious. However the slower and arguably more reliable OBV is still trending strongly and not diverging. Price is also trending strongly. Lets talk a little market psychology:
Many agree the markets were overbought before the recent Fed meeting. When markets are over bought and many are bearish and fearful, it doesn't take much for a sell off to occur. The Fed cut the expected 0.25 % but the narrative about inflation from the Fed chairman spooked the market. As Ed Seykota once famously said "everyone gets what they want form the market". The "market" (people) got what they wanted - a reason to sell. However, as with the XAO chart, I think its too early to tell if this recent pull back is a correction (as in August 2024) or the beginning of something more sinister.
Times like this is when the individual trader/investor needs to decide what their plan is. I know people 100% invested, 50% invested or 100% in cash because they think the risk is too high. Also, are you the trader that uses weekly charts, daily charts, waits for confirmation from either of those time frames or - sells earlier based on other reasons?
Have a plan and stick to it is often the best way.
So, to repeat, it is too early IMO to make a call on the probability of what this market will do - lets see what the next few weeks will bring, alerts below...
cheers,
Peter.
52 week closing highs as of the Fridays close 27/12/2024
Below are the alerts from a scan of the ASX 300 and the 300 to 500
300: HLI
300 - 500: BOT NZM
Have a good trading/investing week.
Peter
I am taking a 2 - 3 week break so there will be no comments or charts to discuss.
However I have posted the 52 WH alerts below for this week and if I have internet will do so the following week/s.
52 week closing highs as of the Fridays close 29/11/2024
Below are the alerts from a scan of the ASX 300 and the 300 to 500
300: GTK QUB
300 - 500: EHR PAR SGF SVR
Have a good trading/investing week.
Peter
See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period for 22/11/24
I have said many times here "price is the ultimate indicator". All other indicators (which are mostly gleaned from price and volume) are a guide, price is the boss and its best to do what the boss tells you. Looking at the chart above the volume indicators are lagging the price - a little. However considering last nights huge rally in the Russell I would think Mondays XAO performance will mirror that. Of course I have learnt not to "expect" but the correlation between the Russell and the XAO is significant. Last week I said this:
the Russell is still showing a strong break out despite this weeks pullback. I would think some buy opportunities will exist if the price falls more and THEN goes back up after bouncing off support. The Russell could still fall more - perhaps down to the 2200 area. At that price the OBV and MFI will be sitting on support lines and unless the market gets really bearish, the probability is it would be a good buy zone.
Of course it may not fall that far, it could just power on............
You can scroll down to last weeks chart of the Russell but if you go to many of the free chart providers (stock charts, big charts, trading view) you can see the last 4 days of the Russell was nothing but up.
A few other big things happened through the week. Gold bounced but the shares still languish its performance. I do think its only a matter of time before good quality gold juniors play catch up, but until then we cant force or expect it. There is a saying in Zen "nothing is forced or controlled" and that is certainly the case with gold shares at the moment. In fact its a great saying to keep in mind with all your trading. Be in flow - don't fight whats happening even though you "think" it "should" be different.
Bitcoin and some of the altcoins had a strong week. I do wonder if the interest in crypto is pulling capital away from the gold sector. In the past the place to speculate was gold shares but now its altcoins? Could be.
The bull market in 52 week closing highs - is back in town. There are eight signals this week in the Australian top 500.
Have a good trading and investing week,
all the best
Peter
ALERTS FOR THIS WEEK POSTED BELOW
52 week closing highs as of the Fridays close 22/11/2024
Below are the alerts from a scan of the ASX 300 and the 300 to 500
300: ALQ ASX MYS NXG ORG SQ2
300 - AVJ CBO
The exit used FOR THIS METHOD is the 5/12 EMA crossover. Therefore, some stocks will be re signalling a new high buy signal if they have been recently exited by using the 5/12 exit within the last 12 months. This is important and you need to understand this.
Of course the 5 EMA needs to be above the 12 EMA to make the 52 week high valid, (otherwise we would be selling straight away) nearly always this is the case, but rarely if a stock spikes it is not.
So to repeat, the rules are: USING WEEKLY PARAMETERS!
Entry:
Share price to make a 52 closing (or equal to) week high (when selecting a buy, favour the cheapest stock)
The 5 ema to be above the 12ema
Exit:
if the 5 ema crosses below the 12 ema
The above system contains no position sizing, bull or bear filters or fundamental stock selection, these are discussed and taught to private clients or at my courses.
See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period
Last week I mentioned low volume but this week made up for it. The two volume indicators on the chart above look "toppy" but the price had a strong week. The bulls won the week over the bears - note how the price closed up at the end of the week after being down earlier. That sort of price action is positive, it indicates people are still buying despite the Trump election euphoria backing off in the US. You can see this clearly in the chart below.
I have mentioned many times the correlation between the Russell and the XAO and it is why I often discuss this Index. For the broad based rally in the US to continue this index really needs to perform - not just the Nasdaq or SP500.
After the initial euphoric rally, price reversed this week on the Russell. You can see how the reliable 13 period MFI was flashing a bearish divergence and price responded accordingly. However, the Russell is still showing a strong break out despite this weeks pullback. I would think some buy opportunities will exist if the price falls more and THEN goes back up after bouncing off support. The Russell could still fall more - perhaps down to the 2200 area. At that price the OBV and MFI will be sitting on support lines and unless the market gets really bearish, the probability is it would be a good buy zone.
Of course it may not fall that far, it could just power on and I will be keeping an eye on the daily chart to see if that happens.
Below is the gold chart.
Gold looks oversold and the gold stocks are suffering because of it. Price is sitting on the first horizontal support line but it could fall more to the second support line around 2500. The short term 10 period MFI is oversold. In the past each time that indicator has got so low the price has bounced, but a bounce is not necessarily a rally or a new trend, so we will have to wait and see how this one plays out. IMO there are still positives for gold and gold shares but it depends - the US$ is having a rally and it needs to back off, money is pouring into tech and crypto, doubts have now emerged about the speed and amount of rate cuts (low rates favour gold).
So, a lot happening at the moment. You are either finding it all interesting and perhaps exciting or the amount of unknowns are stressing you out.
Remember to have a plan, know your risk tolerance, take your stops, don't ride the losers, try not to have stops too tight - its a good way to die from a thousand cuts.
Have a great week - it will be an interesting one!
Peter
ALERTS FOR THIS WEEK POSTED BELOW
52 week closing highs as of the Fridays close 15/11/2024
Below are the alerts from a scan of the ASX 300 and the 300 to 500
300: GMG HSN QBE VUL
300 - 500: LGI
The signals provided are WITHOUT A BULL FILTER.
See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period
This is a similar chart to the one from last week - except the price has bounced off support levels. I do notice something, not a lot of volume from last week. I suppose the Aus market did have 3 days of uncertainty before the election result was certain. Looking at a daily chart (not shown) volume on Thursday and Friday was a lot more than Monday to Wednesday.
It remains to be seen if the market follows through with more buying next week. Regardless of that this is a very strong market and as Ed Seykota once quipped "the trend is your friend until it bends at the end".
ALERTS FOR THIS WEEK POSTED BELOW
52 week closing highs as of the Fridays close 8/11/2024
Below are the alerts from a scan of the ASX 300 and the 300 to 500
300: BEN CPU NWS
300 - 500: KPG
Comments and charts from 1/8/24
See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period
Last week I said this: " markets do not go up in a straight line and at some point in time this market will correct. At the moment you can see the MFI is now in overbought territory and the OBV is sitting on its trend line. When markets get toppy they get nervous and it won't take a lot for this market to correct - just some worrying news. Next weeks US election (Nov 5th) may well be the catalyst. First support sits around 8300 and then 8200 and then of course the round number of 8000"
Well we didn't really get any worrying news (maybe a little about company earnings faltering) but the concerns about the U.S. election is the big thing on peoples minds. A dip down next week to that support area around 8200 would not surprise me. I am going to digress a little and have some fun......
Sometimes it helps to put our "imagination hat" on. For example here are some scenarios about next week in circus land - remember, Americans love a show.
1/ Trump wins with a solid margin
2/ Harris wins with a solid margin
3/ The election is very close and uncertainty prevails for 2 weeks
4/ Trump loses and kicks up a fuss and markets fall (or rise because it was expected)
5/ Trump wins but markets fall on worry he is a loose cannon
6/ Trump wins and markets rise on thoughts he is good for the economy
7/ Harris wins and markets rise on a "same as before, steady as she goes" mentality
8/ Harris wins and markets fall on worries the democrats cant manage the economy and Trump will continue to cause problems
9/ Whatever happens markets rise from a relief rally that we know who is president and the election is over
points 10, 11, 12 and so on...........
So, how does anyone know what will happen? In my opinion it's a waste of time trying to predict, and where am I going with this little rave? Regular readers have guessed. Have a plan, your risk tolerance and methodology worked out so you know what to do in any scenario. I know people that are 100% in cash, 65%, 50% etc. I know people that are "all in" 100% invested. These are the times its so important to know your plan and stick to it. Don't have a plan?
I suggest you first read my eBook Mindful Trading and then follow up with The Zen Trader. Link to those books is below
https://www.easysharetradingsystems.com.au/products-and-services/e-books
So, let us see how the circus all unfolds next week and I look forward to writing about it next week!
Regards
Peter
COMMENTS AND ALERTS as of the Fridays close 25/10/2024
See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period
I have been saying for quite a few weeks now that we have a strong bull market. However, markets do not go up in a straight line and at some point in time this market will correct. At the moment you can see the MFI is now in overbought territory and the OBV is sitting on its trend line. When markets get toppy they get nervous and it won't take a lot for this market to correct - just some worrying news. Next weeks US election (Nov 5th) may well be the catalyst. First support sits around 8300 and then 8200 and then of course the round number of 8000.
As you can see this week was down but on low volume. One bar does not make a trend and next week we will certainly have more information from the price and volume. That will give an indication of how strong this market really is.
The Russell in the US paints a similar story. It's pulled back and it remains to be seen if this is just a consolidation period or something more sinister. Volume indicators are holding OK, but the index needs some good news to rise . Again the same story applies, the next two weeks in the US is pivotal to the fortunes of this index.
Until next week
Peter
COMMENTS AND ALERTS as of the Fridays close 18/10/2024
See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period
It's a bull market. Price is up, both volume indicators are up and are showing no divergence. I will be Zen about this index and say nothing more - as there is not anything more to say :)
However, I will discuss the Russell, as I have often mentioned the correlation it has with the XAO and the importance of this index to show if the rally in stocks is broad based or not.
For simplicity I have chosen to show a line chart. Line charts are calculated from the closes, being a weekly chart it shows the closing price of each week. This analysis is considered by some as more telling, rather than confusing the mind with Bar, Candle or Heiken Ashi charts (to name just a few of the more popular). So, back to the chart - although volume appears to have a little work to do, price has broken a 2.5 year down trend. Obviously there is strong resistance at 2400. "If" this index gets the volume (buying) that it needs to continue its uptrend, the measured move once it takes out the high of 2400 - is..... wait for it ..... 3200.
Will this happen? How do I know! :)
What I do know is, rates are falling, so is inflation, the $US is falling which can be good for US stocks, oil is cheap which is good for many businesses, the US election is an unknown - but it would not surprise me to see markets settle and then rally once it's over. Employment is steady too. So, on the other side of the bears are the bulls, maybe even the "Goldilocks economy bulls". A saying once quipped by Alan Greenspan (ex Fed chairman) before the 2007/8 crash and GFC.
Of course we have risks, the Middle East, Taiwan, US debt, unemployment could rise. The list is long and the market climbs a wall of worry. How do we manage all this diversity of thinking and feelings?
Trade within your means, manage risk, have a plan - particularly an exit plan. Stay healthy, exercise, eat well, hang out in nature to remind ourselves there is something bigger than just us and the markets "out there".
PS: if you scroll down and look at last weeks chart comparing the XGD with the Gold price and my comments about them tracking each other - the XGD is now (this week) outperforming the Gold price. With last nights rally in precious metals in the US, this trend will continue until buyers are exhausted. I will discuss the gold and gold stocks next week, as I want to wait and see how gold and the gold stock sector performs this coming week. I expect gold stock juniors to go bannanas but I have also learnt to expect nothing.
Until next week
Peter
COMMENTS AND ALERTS as of the Fridays close 11/10/2024
See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period
The XAO is still trending up. A little less volume the last few weeks which is understandable. The market climbs a wall of worry and the current worry is the US election in early November. Many economists are concerned about a Trump win, why? Too much unknown. Markets prefer certainty and therefore prefer a Harris win. That would mean "steady as she goes" ( no pun intended) and not so much change. I think markets may rally after a Harris win but I am not one to predict, just a gut feel. I want to discuss the Russell 2000 again this week, as it is the most correlated US index with the XAO.
As you can see its looking quite strong. Despite the doom and gloom from some analysts, this index which reflects more the health of Main street not just Wall street, appears quite healthy. It is showing that the rally in stocks is becoming more broad based and that it is no longer just the magnificent 7 driving the market. One more chart - comparing gold with the Australian gold share index.
A frequent comment I hear is that gold stocks are not keeping pace with the gold price - or that the stocks are not outperforming the gold price as they "should". Well, there are no "shoulds" in trading, just what's happening. As you can see stocks ARE tracking the gold price and very closely since March. In the past (which is not the present) there have been times when gold stocks HAVE outperformed the gold price. Will they start to outperform again?
How do I know ! :)
What I do know is that it could happen, and if it does happen, the place to be is in the mid and small cap gold miners that are yet to perform.
That's it for me this week. Apologies for missing last weeks post.
All the best,
Peter
Alerts for this week are below,
ALERTS FOR THIS WEEK POSTED BELOW
52 week closing highs as of the Fridays close 11/10/2024
Below are the alerts from a scan of the ASX 300 and the 300 to 500
300: MAF TPW
300 - 500: BLX BVS RPL
The signals provided are WITHOUT A BULL FILTER.
See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period
I am writing this Monday 30th September - a bit late this week as I was away for the weekend facilitating a Zen workshop. Unfortunately with some of the recent bugs on the site I have managed to accidentally delete some previous weeks comments, so I will repeat some comments here.
What appears outstanding with this recent rally is the OBV - it's strong, very strong. Its outpacing the price, what normally happens here is one of two things.
1/ the price plays catch up.
2/ the price slows or even falls a bit to revert back to the "normal" correlation between price and volume.
Looking at the 13 period MFI you can see it's made a 52 week high, its much higher than it was in Sept 2023 and is now approaching the over bought (OB) area which was way back in July 2020. However! Interestingly you can see the price continued on from that high in July 2020 to rally another 2000 points or around 35%, from 6000 to 8000. That is a great example of how indicators - be they technical or fundamental, do not predict the price. Indicators provide some essence of probability but -
price is the ultimate indicator.
Here is another chart to discuss, that I think has very big ramifications for the Australian stock market in the near future (weeks to months perhaps years).
For quite a few years now the discussion amongst many analysts has been that the market, both here and in the US, has not been broad based. It's been dominated by the Gorilla stocks such as the Magnificent 7 in the US and the big stocks here in Australia. Eg: CBA, WES, WOW, RIO etc., which are all in the top 20. The narrative was, that what the market (and the economy) needs is to see the mid cap and smaller companies start to perform. What was holding back these companies? You probably guessed - interest rate cuts.
So, the chart above is clearly breaking to the upside. The XSO represents the stocks in the ASX 300 that sit between 100 to 300, It cuts out the top 20 of course as well as the remaining top 80, excluding completely the top 100, focusing on the mid caps and smaller companies.
The price has broken a 2.5 year down trend, the last 2 weeks of volume have been very bullish and the volume indicators are responding. Every alert this week from the ASX 300 (ten of them) is from the 100 to 300, that should tell you something, it's obvious, that is where the strength in the market is.
Now, even though the MFI is approaching the OB area, as we have seen before, price can continue. IMO there is now something of great importance to watch closely, the OBV. If, (trading has lost of if's) the OBV makes an all time high - which is not far away, this will be another huge bullish sign for this sector, the stock market, the economy, politics, macro economics, the works. Of course there is much discussion about how long this rally will last, all based around the many indicators be they technical or fundamental, but markets are strange beasts and they will do what they want. Once human emotion takes over and FOMO kicks in prices can go to very high levels. Those of us that traded during the dot.com years of 1995 - 2000 know this well. So, one more chart and you are going to think I am crazy.
The chart below is the SPX from the US. It's a quarterly scale to take out the noise. In 1996 when this index made a new all time high, it doubled in 2 years from 500 to 1000, it tripled in 4 years (1996 to 2000) from 500 to 1500.
A doubling from the recent all time high of 4,800 will take the market to 9,600, a tripling in 4 years will take it to almost 15,000. Can't happen?
It has before! And, the chart below (for effect) is NOT in log scale, do yourself a favour and look at it in that format allowing for % gain, it looks more probable.
Food for thought,
have a great week,
Peter.
Alerts for this week are below,
ALERTS FOR THIS WEEK POSTED BELOW
52 week closing highs as of the Fridays close 27/9/2024
Below are the alerts from a scan of the ASX 300 and the 300 to 500
300: A4N DEG IDX INR LYC PXA RUL SDR SFR TUA
300 - 500: FWD
Please note: in the eBook I wrote in 2016 (available for purchase on this website on the link below) I have made some changes to the system. If you have bought the eBook I am happy to email you a PDF explaining the changes I made, which from testing and trading does improve the system.
Here is the link to the eBook Mindful Trading using Winning Probability written in 2016 -
and the internationally published The Zen Trader (2022) - now in three languages, English, Spanish, German and in 2025 Traditional Chinese.
IMPORTANT POINTS TO CONSIDER
A new 52 week high for this system is classified when the stock price is at its highest close (or equal to the highest close) counting back 52 weeks.
If a stock continues to make new highs, for example in the 53rd and 54th week, they are now regarded as ROLLING highs, not NEW 52 week highs.To clarify again, the buy signal for THIS system discussed is a NEW 52nd week or 1 year closing high, not a rolling high as is often given elsewhere.